The Science of Urgency–Reflections on COP 18

Outcomes of COP meetings are usually discussed in terms of policy and international buy-in to agreements. By this definition, COP 18 results were less than what were expected yet still a step forward. The Kyoto Protocol will continue on for a second commitment period, eight years on, yet it only legally binds a 15 percent reduction of emissions.  And while stocking the green climate fund by 2020 with the US$ 100bn promised is still high on the to-do list, it seems a tall order from developed nations still watching the dust settle on the financial crisis of last decade.

Yet, as Wael Hmaiden, Director of Climate Action Network International–the largest climate change organization of more than 700 NGOs–explained early in the proceedings: action taken at the policy level is one thing and the attention COP draws to the issues at hand is another.

In Doha, especially, this notion proved important as the meeting took place for the first time in an OPEC nation. Specifically, having a COP in a country that is deeply entrenched in a carbon-based economy did much to foster an information highway to the region, encouraging knowledge transfer on topics like energy subsidization, incentivizing renewables and designing smart cities as well as best practices for carbon capture. What’s more, it drew attention to the fact that residents in this region—with its low-lying populated areas, tapped water reserves and intensely-hot climate—are all-too familiar with the effects of climate change. It’s clear that people across the Gulf are eager to get involved and are starting get a hold of information that can help them assess the situation and do something about it.

Candid discussions around fossil fuel subsidization reform, renewable energy initiatives (namely Saudi Arabia’s unprecedented investment in solar energy production) and the release of the first ever ecological footprint assessment for the MENA region showed a solid effort on the part of the region to move swiftly on climate change. Yet side events (see previous posts) provided deep insight into how complicated this move is given local circumstances.

No matter where in the world you target, you first need to research and understand what exactly you’re looking at in terms of market viability, need for external funding, feasibility of setup and maintenance of any technologies, need for capacity building, issues of equity, and a myriad of other factors, not the least of which would be political makeup. Only then can you design an intelligent and workable plan of action. The types of events and discussions taking place under the UNFCCC are beginning to reflect the dire need for such R&D and knowledge transfer. But will this issue—of adapting climate change strategies—move far and fast enough from behind the shadow of the mitigation strategies and debates that have dominated discussions so far?

Adaptation vs. Mitigation

A debate around adaptation and mitigation has emerged as a key to understanding some of proposed strategies as well as the gridlock at policy level. Adaptation implies ground-level approaches to preparing for effects of climate change. Examples include shifting economies toward renewable resources, basing farming practices on more sustainable methods—including working more closely with meteorologists to plan crops and tapping into time-tested traditional land-use practices—and generally overhauling at every level to reduce climate impacts and prepare everyone for unpredictable conditions. Mitigation, on the other hand, implies directly targeting carbon emissions with policy to incentivize a reduction in fossil fuel use and carbon emissions (creating a side-effect shift toward renewables), as well as the promotion of techniques like carbon capture and storage.

Mitigation and adaptation measures overlap, especially when you consider that mitigation-based taxation and subsidization policies shed more attractive lighting on the renewable market. Yet the call for adaptation, to change the trajectory of developing countries toward a more sustainable one—vs. a follow-the-polluting leaders approach—is emerging as vital, because as more and more people move out of rural poverty and into the urban middle class, energy demands are only projected to rise, markedly.

Policy is now forming around terms of climate change funding for countries that can’t afford the R&D, implementation and maintenance of renewable strategies that work in their environments. These developing countries have so far depended on and suffered the brunt of effects from polluting technologies. For this reason, a UNFCCC  work program on loss and damage has formed, and the Green Climate Fund is under negotiation as a support mechanism for capacity building as well as technology development and transfer.

This COP resulted in continued support of the Technology Executive Committee, which is the newest initiative in UNFCCC aimed at chartering a way forward in terms of implementing effective and climate-friendly technology based on location. Key aims of this committee include developing strong communications with ground-level administrators in developing countries and devising ways to make investment in renewables attractive to private investors based on a long-term prediction of economic success in any given location. Part of this effort hinges on location-specific R&D. For instance, in Qatar, solar energy poses a technology challenge due to the scarcity of water and the amount of it needed to cool the units under unusually hot conditions. Alternative solar-based solutions and cooling technologies must be considered as research targets.

Adaptation technology platforms (as discussed in this post) have popped up to address the incredibly complex conditions on the ground. These data-rich, web-based portals allow access to information not only on the technology in use today but also on the important location-specific information that helps decision makers and investors see the feasibility of implementing any given strategy based on localized conditions—current market drivers, natural resource availability, economy, population, weather, capacity building requirements, etc.

Knowledge transfer has emerged as an essential and pressing concern around adaptation approaches and mitigation approaches alike. At COP 18, experts called repeatedly for more investment in research and publication of findings from developing countries. And now more than ever it has become obvious, the need for open access and open source databases to share findings and minimize duplicate efforts. Similarly, the green patent approach would make technology specs available in a third of the time.

On the mitigation front, the degree of investment into carbon sequestration methods depends directly on knowledge acquisition and transfer related to the most effective strategies to both store maximum carbon and clear out hard-to-reach oil and gas patches. This is not to mention the legal considerations around carbon leakage over time, the potential for which demands focused research and investment therein.

Research in Qatar is addressing many of the issues on the table at COP, some of which were covered here. And a partnership announcement with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research marked a strong step forward and commitment on the part of the host country.

The Science of Urgency

The issues on the table are the greatest humankind has ever faced and, while self evident in countless cases, are most provocative when backed by scientific research. Yet some government officials at COP and much of the general public are ill equipped, information-wise, to to comprehend the full extent of climate change, Hmaiden said.

“Climate change has been here for 20 years,” he explained. “So why didn’t everyone know about it 20 years ago. I am an environmental activist, and it took me seven years as in this role to fully understand what climate change is. Imagine the general public who are even farther away from this information. It’s very complex scientific information that doesn’t trickle easily to the public.”

This combined with the fact that climate change is not an attractive issue complicates the sense of urgency that needs to build around climate change, fast. In Sweden, Hmaiden said, the government has considered naming their ministry of climate change “The Ministry of Existence,” to raise awareness about the seriousness of climate change.

“It’s like cancer in your body; you have to treat it,” he said. “But if you fall down and you have a cut on your head and your head is bleeding, you’re definitely going to treat this more urgently than going to get chemotherapy to cure cancer. Cancer is more important than a cut, more serious than a cut on your forehead. But a cut on the forehead you prioritize in terms of action.

“And what’s happening in the world is that we’re facing one cut after another. We are in a constant state of stitching but we are forgetting that the cancer needs to be treated and that it’s growing. The more we delay, the more it will spread. At some point, whatever chemotherapy you do, it’s not going to be enough. So at some point we’re going to have to say I have to treat this cancer.”

Achim Steiner’s talk at the high-level panel on food security is worth a listen as he headlines with the fact that the UNFCCC’s role in part is to bring science to the policy arena. The UNEP Executive Director and Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations, Steiner’s urgent appeal for effective application of science and technology, to steer humans away from destructive and highly-entrenched modes of operation, is palpable.

Partnerships

As we are on the finishing day for COP18/CMP8 the science around climate change is yet again taking centre stage. The evidence from the science community is compelling and clear, and partnership between countries will probably be able to advance the agenda even further.

As an observer with Qatar Sustainability Network, I was allowed into an informal ministerial session on Wednesday. The UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon in his keynote made clear again that to fight the global climate crisis, partnerships are needed. They are multidimensional and expected to address the full spectrum of agendas climate change prompts. “Climate change is not an environmental issue for ministers only; it poses a challenge for all policy makers including [those overseeing issues like] transport and finance,” he said.

There are clear country-wide challenges to take care of. The French co-chair of the session mentioned the Philippines who are again tackled by another typhoon and spend around 5% of their GDP to repair damages. Later that night, the negotiator from the Philippines made a powerful statement on behalf of his country which is widely covered.

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We really need to “abandon silos” (Ki-moon)

There is interesting and exciting work going on between China and the USA with the Centre of Climate Strategies, but I was really exited to learn about the latest research links forming between the developed and the developing world.

Qatar Foundation earlier that day singed with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and will provide a research bridge between the east and west, the north and south, and the developing and the developed world. The institute was founded with great foresight in 1991.

Shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall, people shared in the enthusiasm and joined hands in believing the east-west conflict might be over and free resources to tackle climate change. “In 1992, people thought about the entire planet, not the east-west conflict,” Professor Schellnhuber, founder of the PIK, said at the signing press conference today.

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(l-r)H.E. Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah, Mr. Faisal Al-Suwaidi, H.H. Sheikha Moza bint Nasser, Ban Ki-moon, Professor Chellnhuber and Christiana Figueres

The centre aims to take a 360 degree view, focusing on science, technology and policy, dealing with all aspects of climate change, from eteorology to policy (and I would guess that this would include finance as well since it underscored virtually every issue at the conference).

Qatar is located in an arid region, and the centre aims to internationalise the research and bring PIK’s renowned analytical capacity to contribute to global solutions.

Professor Schellnhuber is firmly rooted in fundamental sciences, and the centre shall be set up with the principles of best scientific practices and could lead to the creation of other thinktanks. If the evidence is there, he believes they will be transformed into action. And in applying these principles, I believe that both regions can learn from each other.

This new centre–which has the support of Ban Ki-moon, Christiana Figueres and, last but not least, the leadership of Qatar Foundation, represented in the meeting by Her Highness Sheikha Moza bint Nasser and QF president of research, Faisal Al Suwaidi–could contribute substantially to the challenges we are facing. Al Suwaidi believes that they are transforming research in bringing the cooperation together.

Communication and the integration of leading climate change research into the global research community will be as important as bringing the best science. We have to act quickly, and the entire Qscience Team is hoping to work together with the new research centre to help advise on scholarly communication strategies and ensure that the research world will connect quickly and transparently into the development in this region.

Innovative partnerships are needed to advance us all on the global stage. On Friday speaking on behalf of the Qatar Sustainability Network, Noor Jassim al-Thani summed it up perfectly in her closing statement of the high level segment:

Noor Jassim al-Thani speaking at the High Level segment

Noor Jassim al-Thani

“We need partnerships between east and west, north and south, developed and developing world, arid and and non-arid regions–partnerships involving governments, industry, financial institutions, education, research and science. Partnerships which help us here to bridge the knowledge gap.”

Industry makes a case for natural gas

(L to R) Mansar, Lee, Eik, unmentioned, Subedar

(L to R) Sabeur Mansar, Arthur Lee, Arne Eik, Afzal Subedar (second to right) and Laurent Fragu (right)

With COP 18 taking place on the grounds of the third largest natural gas reserve in the world, a side event addressing the industry’s approach was well in order. Organized by Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association (IPIECA), a global association of natural gas companies and the industry’s main connection to the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP), the side event served to “explore the expanding role of natural gas and make a link to climate change,” according to Sabeur Mansar, Vice President Commercial and NBD at Shell, Qatar.

“Qatar is the largest producer of liquefied natural gas, producing 77 million tons per annum,” he said, “there’s no better place or time to have this conversation.”

Arthur Lee, representing IPIECA, gave an overview of how natural gas is gradually taking a load off coal in projected estimates of fuel usage worldwide. He said that over the next ten years, the retirement of coal fired power plants will range anywhere from 11 to 22 percent depending on the price of natural gas rising or lowering, respectively, according to demand. With new exploratory techniques, however, the location and extraction of more natural gas from reserves worldwide has served to drive the cost down, he said.

“Natural gas has an enhanced role in power generation in scenarios that put a price on carbon emissions,” Lee said.

The industry has taken a great interest in understanding the precise GHG impact of natural gas systems, he added, with strategies in place to better manage emissions and compare the use of alternate technologies at every stage of its procurement and life cycle.

“In mitigation scenarios,” Lee said, “natural gas coupled with carbon capture and storage (CCS) plays an important role in the later half of this century, if and when there is an actual price on carbon.”

Since 2005, there’s been a decoupling of the price of oil and natural gas, with the later lowering significantly, again based on increased resource estimates. Natural gas has therefore experienced an increased level of usage in power generation and industry and is gaining interest as an export.

“It’s very well known that natural gas has half the carbon emissions as coal on a unit energy basis,” Lee said. “It’s a significantly better environmental performer than coal, and this has lead to US emissions reductions.”

Lee said that an independent body, the National Petroleum Council, comprised of experts from the petroleum industry, consultants, scientists and others, formed at the request of policy makers to evaluation natural gas technologies.

“We believe that gas is a not only a transition fuel but also a destination fuel,” Mansar said, beginning Shell’s portion of the event. “Science tells us that there is a cap to the amount of CO2 we can put in the atmosphere—as energy demand doubles, we have to halve CO2 emissions. There is no silver bullet. We need to manage the demand. We need input and to work together.”

Mansar spoke of the global energy mix predicted through 2050, with gas being a cornerstone since it is a cheap option among the alternatives. At the current rate of production, he said, there is enough natural gas to last 250 years.

Mansar explained halving of CO2 emissions must coincide with the projection of a doubling in global energy demand due to a future shift of many rural poor to urban and energy-intensive conditions

Mansar explains that halving of CO2 emissions must coincide with the projection of a doubling in global energy demand due to a future shift of many rural poor to urban and energy-intensive conditions

“We [Shell] see an interplay among renewable and natural gas,” Mansar said. “Renewables need gas, and the world needs both. Renewables need gas, because when wind is not blowing and sun is not shining, gas can fill the void.”

Mansar spoke of Shell’s long-term commitment to R&D related to natural gas, specifically gas-to-liquid (GTL) technology. “We’ve been committed to this for three decades,” he said.

“We believe there is a gas revolution, and it’s up to us to seize the opportunity. Gas needs to enjoy a level playing field … a robust trading scheme … carbon capture and storage projects … adequate regulations.”

Arne Eik, lead consultant, responsible for climate policy and market analysis at Statoil, a company overseeing the second largest exports of gas to Europe said: “We are facing a massive challenge. [Mitigating] the two degree scenario [in reference to the temperature rise that scientists predict would cause significant sea level rise] is very hard to reach, but we cannot give up.”

Under a more stringent climate policy, emissions costs would be higher, he said, and this is a development fully supported by Statoil and the industry.

“We have a climate strategy consisting of several elements,” Eik said. “We’re focusing on carbon efficiency with 2020 targets for various types of oil and gas. We’re focused on development and renewables; we want to bring gas to the market as a sustainable solution.”

On behalf of Statoil, Eik said that the EU ETS should remain the cornerstone of the climate policy in Europe—“If we don’t see higher prices than we see today, we will not see investments in cleaner technology, and we will not se switching from coal to gas. We would like to strengthen the EU ETS short term and long term, take out allowances … there are a lot of allowances now due to the special circumstances … we think it’s justified to remove allowances as a one-off thing to do… it’s important to have established emission reduction targets that stimulate fuel switching and investment in cleaner technology.”

Eik explains the constant natural gas demand projected over time compared to a drop around coal and oil

Eik explains the constant natural gas demand projected over time compared to a drop around coal and oil

Afzal Subedar, management specialist at Qatargas, spoke about GHG strategies in place at one of Qatar’s two major natural gas companies. Known for its Ras Laffan terminal and refinery, QatarGas is a venture between Qatar Petroleum, Total, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Shell, Mitsui, Marabeini, Idemitsu Kosan and Cosmo Oil.

“Our accounting and emissions reporting is based on EU ETS,” he said. “From 2009 onward we’ve come through evaluations with flying colors—there have been some challenges but we are very happy that we have overcome those, and we are trying to best manage our inventories and programs.”

He described a US$ 1billion project, Jetty Boil-Off Gas (JBOG) Recovery Project, which is “the largest environmental project of its kind in the world and purely environmental.”

It enables boil-off gas to be collected from RasGas and Qatargas LNG ships for compression at a central facility. When it’s fully operational, he said it will recover about 29 billion standard cubic feet per hear of gas that would have otherwise been flared (with a 90 percent recovery efficiency). This, he said, would be enough to power more than 300,000 homes and result in GHG emissions reductions of 1.6 million tons per annum.

Subedar explains specific strategies Qatargas has deployed since 2006 to address GHG emissions

Subedar explains specific strategies Qatargas has deployed since 2006 to address GHG emissions

Since the GHG strategies between Qatargas and RasGas align, Laurent Fragu, Environmental Engineering Specialist at RasGas, picked up from Subedar’s presentation to expand on his company’s role as related to and in line with Qatar’s sustainability goals. RasGas is a venture between Qatar Petroleum and ExxonMobil known for its Barzan gas and Ras Laffan helium projects. Fragu explained the efforts it’s making to reduce emissions at each step of the value chain, including acid gas removal, liquefaction, tail gas treatment to reduce emissions and increase efficiency, flare minimization, common facilities to reduce cargo emissions, large gas carriers with specialized engines and overall terminal enhancements to increase efficiency.

“Sustainability initiatives are part of the 2030 national vision,” he said. “We are currently looking at zero discharge for wastewater management, a biodiversity program and more approaches to mitigate environmental impacts.”

Hikma Hours Highlight Qatar’s Response to Climate Change

(L to R) Chris Silva, Sheikha Athba Al Thani, Nasser Al Khori, Arend Kuster, Rudiger Tscherning, and Nadia Aboul Hosn

Members of various organizations around Qatar* have formed an NGO alliance around climate change initiatives known as Qatar Sustainability Network (QSN). Today saw QSN executives leading a discussion about Qatar’s specific responses to climate change in terms of adaptation, mitigation and capacity building. The discussion was the first of what will be daily side events at COP 18, called Hikma Hours (Hikma translating most closely to the English word wisdom). 

Today’s discussion, moderated by Arend Kuster, Managing Director at QScience.com and board member of QSN, presented a general overview of proactive capacity-building efforts underway across a range of sectors in Qatar. In introducing the panel of QSN representatives, Kuster added that sustainability is at the heart of the agenda and the Qatar National Vision 2030 and that “Qatar Foundation and QSN are working together to build capacity and raise standards on how we use food and water resources while being mindful and aware of impacts on the environment.”

Panelist, Sheikha Athba Al Thani, Chief Services Support Officer and Sustainable Development Manager at Qatar Diar Vinci Construction (QDVC) spoke about outreach initiatives throughout Qatar schools and how these are carefully monitored to ensure that the information is impacting youth and their approach to the environment. She also spoke of collaborations with QTel (Qatar’s main telecommunications company) to enhance recycling initiatives and broaden the scope of these over time.

Nasser Al Khori, Programs Associate for Qatar Foundation International, spoke about  programs aimed at raising awareness and creating global citizens. He spoke specifically about an initiative called Mapping the Mangroves, which is dedicated to heightening awareness and fostering conversations and protective action around the important ecosystems found in Mangrove forests around the world. At the heart of this project is scientific investigation, as it depends on a collaboration with Carnegie Mellon University in Qatar, which supplied technology to remotely monitor factors like temperature and use these figures for research. Al Khori describes the project here:

Nadia Aboul Hosn, the Science and Outreach Expert at Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute (QEERI) spoke about initiatives QEERI has undertaken to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of Qatar’s response to climate-change-related issues. She said that while many exciting and highly-sophisticated projects are underway, especially given the great capacity-building effort around research in Qatar, there is a gap between organizations, causing efforts to be made in silos when collaboration would be favorable. She said that QEERI is actively looking into ways to bridge this gap and bring together various proactive organizations so that initiatives based on shared expertise and experience can be formed.

Christopher Silva, Sustainability Education Coordinator at Hamad Bin Khalifa University (part of Qatar Foundation), spoke about how Qatar is employing knowledge from various sectors–including social sciences–to ensure that green building technology is not only a part of people’s lives but a factor in raising awareness and changing behavior. For one example, green buildings can be equipped with monitors that inform residents when the temperature outside is favorable to that indoors so that they switch off the air conditioner and open windows. For another, residents use a key card to activate electricity, but bearing a likeness to a hotel room key, he said this card also stores information about how much electricity was used so that the resident understands their impact immediately and in relation to the time spent with lights or devices on. The immediacy of this information, he said, is what makes it effective.

Director of the Energy and Environmental Law Forum at Qatar University, Rudiger Tscherning spoke about how Qatar is working to establish laws and regulations around environmental initiatives. He said that in terms of capacity building for the nation, Qatar University’s environmental law program is focused on both research and education: “We work with lawyers at all levels and government employees and the issue is ‘where are the environmental laws; where are we at?'”

This idea builds into the vision of the country. The vision document itself “shows what the country of Qatar wants to be, where it’s going and how it’s going to get there,” he said.

The message from the environmental field in Qatar is that of a sustainable and diversified economy as part of social development, he continued. “We embrace the industry and engage them,” he said. “We are strong on lobbying and finding ways of alternative energy her in Qatar–water consumption, hydrocarbon use for desalination and energy generation, themes we are highly aware of.”

Tscherning emphasized the concept of transmission, i.e., sharing expertise as a form of capacity building. “This is something that is at the heart of what we are doing … we can get expertise from overseas, yet there is a lot of expertise hidden in Qatar, that’s why QSN is brilliant–get the expertise that is already here and spread it through collaboration.”

Kuster tied the discussion together with a look forward: “We need to validate what we are doing here against the future generations. We know what went wrong in the past—it’s the future we need to look at to know what we are to do here.”

*Members of QSN: Averda, Doha Oasis, Eco-Q, Friends of the Environment Center, Msheireb Properties, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Qatar Energy and Environment Research Institute, Qatar Green Building Council, Qatar National Research Fund, Qatar Natural History Group, Qatar Science and Technology Park, Qatar Foundation, Qatar Solar Technologies, QScience, Qur’anic Gardens, Sprout, Sustainable Qatar, TCE QSTP-LLC. Government agencies participate as observers.